Uncertainties in Rainfall and Water Resources in Maghreb Countries Under Climate Change

Abstract

The vulnerability of the climate change in the South of the Mediterranean’s south regions varies depending on the part of their climate which is sensitive to the economy. In Tunisia, agriculture represents 16% of the workforce and 12% of GDP in 2006. In Algeria, agriculture represents 20% of the workforce and 8% of GDP in 2009. In Morocco, agriculture accounts for 40% of the workforce and 17.7% of GDP in 2006. The agriculture is directly related to the availability of water which in turn is directly related to rainfall. The drought has affected all countries of the Maghreb. It is considered the most severe in the history of these countries. The drought has forced the agricultural sector in Morocco to the limitation of annual crops which are not needed, the prohibition of any new tree planting and the ban on vegetable crops in dry years. During the years 1987, 1988, and 1989, Tunisia has experienced the most critical drought. It led to a water deficit of around 30%. For Morocco the rainfall shows a negative trend at national and regional scales, and spring rainfall has declined by over 40% since the 1960s. For Algeria, the western region has recorded a considerable reduction in rainfall. The winter rains have decreased between 40% and 70%. Contributions to dams have decreased between 30% and 50%. These changes had a negative influence on the water resource and crop yield. Many programs have been initiated since then to meet the growing demand.