Contribution à l'analyse de la sécheresse dans le contexte du changement climatique en utilisant les copules.

Abstract

Drought is one of the most common natural hazards in Algeria with negative effects on agriculture and water resources. The drought analysis consists of characterizing its severity, duration and intensity. This study aims to analyze the drought risk in northwestern Algeria, particularly on its two major watershed; the Tafna and Macta, based on two indices: the metrological index (SPI) and the hydrometric index (SDI). The characteristics calculated from these two indices will be used to compare the two types of drought namely: metrological drought and hydrological drought. Subsequently, the drought characteristics calculated from the SDI are adapted to the copulas to obtain the return periods, while the SPI is used to evaluate the characteristics of the drought under climate change in the future projected. The latter was calculated using the output of the best model selected from the eight Cordex-Africa regional climate models using tow future periods (2006-2060 and 2045-2100) with tow Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5) scenarios.