Contribution à l'étude des diagrammes de consommation d'eau potable en zone urbaine.

Abstract

Water utility managers have never been very concerned with forecasting the medium- and long-term evolution of water demand. Demand scenarios have long been generated using very simple methods, such as extrapolating previous models in terms of total volume consumed or multiplying the future population by a requirement expressed in cubic meters per year per capita or per customer. These methods are still considered adequate for sizing facilities and planning investment funding, although their use has often resulted in over- or underestimation of future demand. As long as population and economic growth were maintained, this was not a serious problem; however, any lack of forecasting leads to overuse and apparition of financial strain. Therefore, the contribution of water demand forecasting has been the focus of this work. The objective is to apply an accurate time-series forecasting model that meets the drinking water and economic needs of the population while taking into account the economies imposed by the limits of the resource and the desire to preserve it. when applying the two average models and the ARIMA model on the daily consumption series of the city of Biskra where the MA method provides a better estimate for our study sample.